Okay, so we’re gearing up for the event that was so much cooler when it fell on a weekday. Yep, up until a couple of years ago, Oscar Day was an official day off from work. So, now it’s on a Sunday, Billy’s not hosting, and every employer knows to expect hangovers and Oscar Pool Collections come Monday.
Last year, I won the Pool at the party I attended. I’d seen exactly one of the nominated films. I passed out before hour one of the award ceremony. But I knew how to vote. Mainly, I know how to do this because of my secret weapon: My Cousin Joni. The reason my Oscar Picks are Subject to Change, at this point, is because Joni’s predictions don’t come to me until much closer to the witching hour, like on Oscar day.
Until then, here’s what I’ll predict on my own.
PICTURE
Oooh! I’ve seen two of these. Can you guess which two? I think the winner will be “CT,HD,” even though it’s already going to win the Foreign Language Film. If something really amazing were going to happen, I’d say “Traffic” would win, but Best Director would go to Ang Lee.
ACTOR
Wow, I would so love to see Javier win, just because he’s so damn hot. Russell Crowe can suck a fart out of my ass for being such a bad sport at the Golden Globes. I doubt he’ll do too well, being considered the Official Homewrecker of 2000 (and that’s a tough race to win in Hollywood). However, just like Norm McDonald used to say on SNL, “Germans love David Hasselhoff,” I think “people love Tom Hanks.” It’s weird, but they just love him! And he gained and lost all that weight, that hair, and had some sort of sporting equipment as a costar, right? All that aside, my pick is Ed Harris, because he’s gone overlooked far too many times – and he really worked his ass off on “Pollock.” Of course, I haven’t seen any of the nominated performances.
ACTRESS
Please, oh, God, please, let Ellen Burstyn win! What a goddess! And, I’m pretty sure Oscar’s not into boobs, so Julia’s will have to rest on either side of her Golden Globe instead this year. Of course, when I interviewed Christian Slater’s mom, who cast “The Contender,” she predicted Joan Allen would win. I think she’s probably right – and not just because she called to say her son loved my column.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
As much as I love [to look at] Benicio del Toro, I think Willem Dafoe will win this one. What a stud!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I adore Judi Dench, and I actually saw “Chocolat,” so I can also say I really liked her job and not just her body of work. I think Goldie Hawn Junior got her goods on Golden Globe night, and sharing the category with Marge from “Fargo” won’t help her. I wonder if the Academy will reward Julie Walters, simply because “Billy Elliot” is under-nominated. There’s always one really nice shocker, and this may be the one. I’m going to place my bet on Marcia Gay Harden. How ’bout that?
DIRECTOR
Steven deserves it for “Traffic” but he won’t get it. The night belongs to Ang Lee. Hope he has as much fun as Roberto Benini did.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Oscar doesn’t like Cameron Crowe, so even though that was probably a better script, I’m thinking Lee Hall, for the under-nominated reason mentioned above. Gladiator’s going to be shut out (and thank God). Besides, scripts with more than one screenwriter tend to be more like “Get Over It” or any other crappy teen movie that’ll be forgotten before the trailer ends.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I’d love for it to be Robert Nelson Jacobs, because I met him at the screening for “Chocolat” and thought his responses to people who doubted some of his choices in adaptation were honest, intelligent, and well-justified. I’d love to see the Coens win, just because I know they’ll liven up the acceptance speech portion of the night. “Wonder Boys” has gotten good press. “Traffic,”
I’m sure, is worthy. I just see a “CT,HD” sweep – forget my earlier rule about multiple screenwriters. It’s an action flick and it’s a foreign film. All bets are off.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“CT,HD.” Thanks, everyone else, for playing.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I think “CT,HD” could do it, but I also think “Gladiator” will get a few pity votes, this being one of them.
FILM EDITING
“CT,HD.”
ORIGINAL SCORE
This category always gets me… but I’m thinking John Williams always does pretty well on these things. So, assuming “CT,HD” and “Gladiator” split their votes up, that’s a win for “The Patriot.”
ORIGINAL SONG
Bob Dylan. It’s a tough year, and, what?? no Phil Collins?? No Marc Shaiman?? Well, then it has to be Dylan.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No idea. I need to read up on what “they” are saying about this category. Just based on titles, I’ll go with “Sound and Fury.” Why not?
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Gosh, for a minute, I thought “Big Mama” was “Big Mama’s House” and I wondered how Martin Lawrence’s “I wanna be Eddie Murphy” flick could be considered short. Again, I’ll guess, and I’ll go on titles, and choose “The Man on Lincoln’s Nose.” What the hell?
ANIMATED SHORT
No clue. “The Periwig-Maker”?? Sounds good to me.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“Quiero Ser…” gets my vote.
ART DIRECTION
Yip yip yip for Yip! “CT,HD” continues its sweep.
COSTUME DESIGN
Tougher, and I’d love to say Yip, again, but I think either “Gladiator” will be thrown a bone here, or maybe “Grinch” will see some gravy. Doubt it, though. Cast my vote for “CT,HD” yet again.
MAKEUP
Ah, well… if Willem weren’t enough of a kick-ass actor for this film, his makeup surely helped. However, “Grinch” was some serious makeup, and for many more people. So, it’s a tough call, but I’ll go with “Grinch” by a nose hair.
SOUND
Maybe “Cast Away,” just so it can get a little something, but more likely “Gladiator,” since everyone’s going to be feeling sorry for its absence in larger categories, and it’s a way to reward the film without rewarding Sir Russell Sourpuss.
SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
What fucking bad choices. “U-571” because it has fewer old farts in it.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Perfect Storm.” No one liked “Hollow Man,” even though its effects were top-notch.
There ya go! I’ll let you know once my cousin’s opinions get stirred into my own. Take care!